By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy could be in for a fresh inflation jolt if the Trump administration fully follows through with tariffs on Chinese imports, a New York Federal Reserve research paper said on Wednesday.
At issue is President Donald Trump’s announcement of import taxes on low-cost “de minimis” packages from China. Trump had sought to repeal the duty-free arrangements for these small-value goods entering the U.S., but then paused that action at the start of this month. The president has taken a similar approach with tariffs on other major U.S. trade partners.
The New York Fed paper argued that the small-scale shippers of Chinese products had been key to blunting the impact of tariffs during Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency.
“The rapid expansion of low-value direct-to-consumer sales from China has allowed a very substantial amount of trade to completely bypass all of the tariffs that have been imposed on China beginning in 2018,” wrote Hunter Clark, economic policy advisor at the New York Fed. This shift has suggested there may be as much as $50 billion in “missing imports” tied to the small price imports which could be in line for tariffs.
“U.S. consumers could face larger consequences than meet the eye from the recent 10-percentage-point tariff increase if the de minimis exception is ended for China and Chinese sellers do not slash their profit margins by reducing their export prices,” Clark wrote.
As with all tariffs, the key is whether the duty is passed along or if producers find a way to lower prices to offset the impact. Trump has repeatedly argued that tariffs are paid by the producing nation, but in fact they act as a tax on U.S. consumers.
Economists have long held that Trump’s tariff agenda, coupled with his plans to deport undocumented workers, will likely drive up inflationary pressures at a time when they had been waning.
U.S. central bank officials have been hesitant to say how they’re factoring tariffs into their outlook, although Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week his “baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a non-persistent manner,” adding “I favor looking through these effects when setting monetary policy.”
Fed officials, however, place a considerable emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations, believing these forecasts exert a strong influence on price pressures. And increasingly, the public and businesses appear to be bracing for higher prices.
The Conference Board reported on Tuesday a big retreat in consumer confidence levels last month and a huge jump in expected inflation a year from now. “There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs” from survey respondents, the Conference Board said, “back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
