By Brigid Riley
TOKYO (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar firmed above an 11-week trough on Thursday as vague pledges from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Europe and further delays to levies planned for Canada and Mexico stoked uncertainty.
The euro edged further from a one-month high of $1.0529 hit in the previous session, as traders took a wait-and-see approach to Trump floating the idea on Wednesday of a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.
Trump also said steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2 instead of the previously stated deadline of March 4.
But a White House official said levies on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending Trump’s review of both nations’ actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the United States.
The confusion kept currencies largely within recent ranges, with the Canadian dollar under pressure near a two-week low against the greenback, while the Mexican peso hovered at 20.423 after briefly appreciating to as high as 20.286 on Trump’s remarks.
The euro slid 0.17% to $1.0467, with investors also awaiting news of any progress on efforts by German conservatives to form a coalition government following their election victory.
Markets appeared to be waiting for a more substantial catalyst, which Trump’s “mixed messaging” was not, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.
“We know that Trump can say what he wants when he wants, and only some of his threats come to fruition, which is likely why currency traders took his latest comments within stride,” he said.
While global trade concerns helped propel the greenback further off a more than two-month low of 106.12 touched on Monday, it remained down nearly 4% from a more than two-year high hit in January as the shifting tariff messages simultaneously fanned worries about U.S. economic growth and inflation.
A recent string of indicators, including weak U.S. business activity in February, and a sharp drop in consumer confidence, amplified those concerns, causing U.S. Treasury yields to tumble.
While hard economic data has yet to show the decline that sentiment indicators have, risks are growing, Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz wrote in a research note.
“So far, we see no reason to abandon our baseline scenario of continued solid growth; the U.S. economy still appears to have sufficient momentum. However, the real economic data for the coming months should be followed with great attention,” they said.
Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver at least two rate cuts this year, with about 58 basis points of easing priced in for 2025, although the Fed is seen waiting for the next several months.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against the euro and a handful of other major peers, rose 0.2% to 106.66, ahead of a second estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter due later in the day.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, both particularly vulnerable to the risks of a global trade war, brushed their lowest levels in two weeks.
Elsewhere, the dollar was last up 0.14% at 149.34 against the yen, but remained not far off its weakest against the Japanese currency since early December.
The fall in U.S. Treasury yields has helped to lift the yen while Japanese yields have also climbed on bets that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to raise interest rates this year.
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, underscored on Wednesday Tokyo’s view that the currency’s rebound was broadly in line with an improving economy that could justify BOJ hikes.
Sterling drifted further below Wednesday’s more than two-month high of $1.2717, last fetching $1.2658.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 1.51% to $85,727.90 after slumping to its lowest level since November 11 at $82,156.99 the previous day.
(Reporting by Brigid RileyEditing by Shri Navaratnam and Sam Holmes)
