By Andrei Khalip and Sergio Goncalves
LISBON (Reuters) – Portugal could face its third early parliamentary election in just over three years after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro proposed a confidence motion in his centre-right minority government.
If the government loses the vote in parliament, it will take on a caretaker role, pending a decision by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on whether to dissolve parliament and call a new election.
There are scenarios under which a new election would not be held but an early election appears the most likely option.
WHY DID THE PRIME MINISTER CALL A CONFIDENCE VOTE?
Montenegro presented the confidence motion after the opposition threatened to call for a parliamentary inquiry into Spinumviva, his family’s data protection consultancy. He founded the company in 2021 but handed ownership to his wife and sons in 2022.
Spinumviva has made contracts with private companies, including a casino and hotel business, that the opposition says have benefited Montenegro. He has denied any conflict of interest or ethical shortfalls.
Political analysts said Montenegro feared a prolonged inquiry would cloud the rest of his term as prime minister and may have decided it would be better to contest an election sooner rather than later – while his Social Democratic Party’s ratings are still high and the economy is on a strong footing.
There is no active investigation under way into Spinumviva although prosecutors are analysing an anonymous complaint against Montenegro linked to its dealings.
Assets acquired after marriage belong to the couple under Portuguese law, leaving the transfer of ownership in a grey area between civil and commercial law.
COULD THE GOVERNMENT WIN THE CONFIDENCE MOTION?
The confidence motion is expected to be held on Tuesday.
The centre-left opposition Socialist Party (PS) and far-right Chega have a combined total of 128 seats in the 230-seat parliament, and have said they would vote against the government in a confidence motion. The alliance led by Montenegro has 80 seats.
WHO WOULD WIN AN EARLY ELECTION?
Rebelo de Sousa has said that if an early election proves unavoidable, the earliest dates would be May 11 or 18.
Latest opinion polls from February show very little change from last year’s election, which the alliance led by Montenegro won by a slim margin over the PS, securing a four-year term.
The alliance of Montenegro’s PSD and the conservative CDS-PP is polling at around 30%, slightly ahead of the PS, with the far-right Chega in third on 18%.
IF THERE ANY WAY OF AVOIDING AN EARLY ELECTION?
Montenegro and his government could emerge victorious from a confidence vote if the PS were to abstain on the condition that a parliamentary inquiry is opened into Spinumviva. But after its sabre-rattling of the past few days, that seems a remote possibility.
If the confidence vote goes against the government, the president could ask the ruling coalition to come up with a replacement for Montenegro. But Montenegro’s party has said he would lead it in any new election, so that option is all but ruled out.
HOW ABOUT THE ECONOMY?
Despite the political upheaval of the past four years, Western Europe’s poorest country – a member of the European Union and NATO – has shown stronger economic growth than most EU states, posting budget surpluses and reducing its debt under the centre-left and then centre-right governments.
Although it is struggling to contain a housing crisis, in part provoked by a tourism boom, strife has been rare.
A government change could stall big investment projects, including lithium mining in north Portugal, and the long-delayed privatisation of TAP airline, in which several key industry players have shown interest.
Montenegro said Portugal’s growth and surplus targets were not in jeopardy and “there is no reason to see Portugal as a focus of instability in the European Union”.
(Reporting by Andrei Khalip, editing by Aislinn Laing and Timothy Heritage)
