By Andrey Sychev and Amir Orusov
(Reuters) -A cautious sales outlook for the commercial vehicle market in 2025 amid a weak global economy sent shares of Volkswagen’s truck unit Traton falling on Monday.
The Scania owner’s shares were down 7.85% at 0807 GMT, on track for the worst one-day decline since January.
The truck maker forecast 2025 sales to range from -5% to +5% and an operating return on sales of between 7.5% and 8.5%. The outlook is subject to geopolitical developments, particularly in the United States, it said.
“The guidance for 2025 could be cautious and consensus currently aligns with the top end of company expectations,” JP Morgan said.
European truck makers’ shares have risen significantly this year on hopes for higher order books ahead of U.S. tariffs coming into effect, decisions to move more production to the Unites States and an improving European outlook.
The region’s truck makers struggled through last year amid falling sales, after pent-up demand following the pandemic drove them to record highs in 2023.
Sweden’s Volvo in January reported a strong order intake for the fourth quarter, which some analysts said might be a sign of brightening outlook for the European truck market.
Traton’s fourth-quarter orders also rose but the German-headquartered group is not declaring a turnaround in Europe, JPM analysts added.
Its adjusted operating return on sales, its main profitability metric, rose to 9.2% in 2024, exceeding both the 2023 figure and its forecast, thanks mainly to efficiency measures even as vehicle sales fell.
The owner of MAN truck brand hiked its dividend by 13% to 1.70 euros per share, raising the total payout to 850 million euros, most of which will go to its parent Volskwagen which owns almost 90% of the shares.
Sales of electric vehicles dropped by almost a fifth, reducing EVs’ share in overall sales from 0.6% to 0.5% and increasing the risk of Traton not meeting carbon emission reduction targets.
Traton’s results come as Volkswagen undergoes a major restructuring with thousands of job cuts in Germany due to shrinking European demand, rising competition from China and uncertainties around the EV transition.
($1 = 0.9223 euros)
(Reporting by Andrey Sychev and Amir Orusov in Gdansk; editing by Milla Nissi and Bernadette Baum)
