SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s oil consumption will rise 1.1% in 2025 to 765 million metric tons amid better than expected economic growth and increasing demand for petrochemicals, a think tank affiliated with state energy company China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said on Tuesday.
Oil demand from the petrochemical sector still has room to grow as China’s per-capita plastic consumption is only around 60% of that of developed countries, said Wu Mouyuan, vice president of CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute (ETRI).
China’s booming electric vehicle (EV) industry will also drive consumption of plastics, which is more heavily used in EVs than in gasoline vehicles, Wu said.
Transportation fuel use, however, has peaked, Wu said.
In the mid-term, alternative energy sources will grow faster than previously thought, with electric vehicle and liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck ownership rates rising from the current less than 10% to over 30% and over 15%, respectively, by 2030, he said in the presentation.
Brent oil prices will fall to a range of $65-$75 per barrel this year, down from the 2024 average of $79 amid a global economic slowdown, according to CNPC’s outlook.
Brent will range between $60-$70 from 2026 to 2030 under a base scenario.
However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies could be a wild card for the market, potentially tightening global supply.
“The Trump factor will be the biggest uncertainty for the oil market,” Wu said, citing Trump’s tougher sanctions imposed on Iran and his threat to place 25% tariffs on countries buying oil from Venezuela and Russia.
(Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore and Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kim Coghill)
