A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
The deep breath that global markets are taking in the countdown to Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement looks like it will continue into the European session, with futures there pointing higher.
Wall Street’s relatively minor respite was magnified in Asia. Some markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea surged back 1% or more from steep declines on Monday.
Nerves are definitely still a bit frayed though, with supreme safe haven gold marking an all-time peak for a fourth straight session.
To be clear, nothing has really changed: We still are no wiser as to what Trump is set to announce on Wednesday. Any expectations that there might be room for trade partners to negotiate apparently came undone with the U.S. president’s statement late on Sunday that essentially every country will be slapped with reciprocal levies.
Late on Monday, the White House released an encyclopaedic list of foreign countries’ policies and regulations it regards as trade barriers.
Trump says he’s willing to accept higher consumer prices at home to reset the playing field for global trade, even with a recent hot CPI reading stoking market fears of stagflation.
Upping the ante on a potential tariff-triggered slowdown, Goldman raised its estimate on the odds of a recession to 35%, and predicted three Fed rate cuts this year.
There’s a lot of information about the state of the U.S. economy this week, particularly the job market, with the JOLTS report later today, the ADP report a day later, and monthly payrolls figures on Friday, when Fed Chair Jay Powell is also giving a speech on the economic outlook.
In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde and fellow board member Philip Lane speak separately at a conference in Frankfurt today, when we get euro-area data on consumer prices, the manufacturing PMI and the jobless rate.
Britain will also have the manufacturing PMI, and the Bank of England’s Megan Greene gives a keynote speech to the Royal Economic Society in London.
Meanwhile, French far-right politician Marine Le Pen plans to appeal as soon as possible an embezzlement conviction that bars her from running in the 2027 presidential election.
A front-runner to take over from President Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen maintains her innocence and says the ruling was politicised.
Le Pen’s five-year public office ban actually cannot be suspended by appeal, although she retains her parliamentary seat until her term ends.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
-Euro-area manufacturing PMI, CPI, unemployment rate
-ECB’s Lagarde, Lane speak
-UK manufacturing PMI
-BoE’s Greene speaks
-US JOLTS report
(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
