ABUJA (Reuters) – The Nigerian and Ghanaian currencies are expected to be broadly stable in the next week to Thursday thanks to central bank support, while the Ugandan and Zambian currencies could fall, traders said.
NIGERIA
Nigeria’s naira is seen holding steady as central bank dollar sales counteract pressure from foreign investors trying to pull their money to safe havens because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies.
The naira was quoted around 1,620 to the dollar in intraday trading on Thursday, compared with a closing quote of 1,530 naira a week earlier.
The unit was sold at 1,620 naira to the dollar in street trading on Thursday.
“We are seeing a lot of foreign investors trying to leave the market. But with the 90-day freeze (in Trump’s tariffs) we expect some slower movement,” one trader said.
GHANA
Ghana’s cedi is expected to remain broadly stable next week, also thanks to central bank support meeting increased demand for dollars.
LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 15.45 per dollar on Thursday, the same as last Thursday’s close.
“The cedi opened the week on the back foot against the dollar, as US tariff concerns spurred offshore demand for the greenback. However, timely intervention by the Bank of Ghana helped contain the pressure,” Chris Nettey, head of trading Stanbic Bank Ghana, said.
“Looking ahead, we expect the cedi to hold firm on the back of sustained BoG support,” he added.
Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader at Absa Bank Ghana, said continued central bank intervention should prevent any sharp moves in the dollar/cedi pair.
UGANDA
Uganda’s shilling could slip as uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs continues to weigh on market sentiment.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,680/3,690 to the dollar, compared to last Thursday’s close of 3,647/3,657.
“Even with the pause, there’s still quite a cloud of fear and uncertainty as to how this whole tariff whirlwind will impact global trade,” one trader said.
That fear, he said, would continue to push banks and importers to seek hard currency in the short term.
He predicted the shilling would swing in the 3,660-3,720 to the dollar range in the coming week.
ZAMBIA
Zambia’s kwacha is expected face continued pressure due to a plunge in the price of copper because of Trump’s trade war. On Thursday the currency of Africa’s second-largest copper producer was quoted at 28.39 per dollar from 27.98 a week ago.
“For Zambia, where mining accounts for over 70% of foreign exchange earnings, this (copper price) slump spells trouble for the kwacha,” Access Bank said in a note.
KENYA
Traders were reluctant to predict how Kenya’s shilling would trade in the week ahead, saying a lot would depend on Trump’s next tariff moves.
LSEG data showed the shilling at 129.30/80 per dollar on Thursday compared with last Thursday’s close of 129.00/50.
“There’s so much going on, it depends on what Trump says (next). The market corrected yesterday after he backed down (by announcing a pause in some tariffs), and so we’ve seen a bit of a recovery,” one banker said.
(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha, Christian Akorlie, Elias Biryabarema, Chris Mfula and Hereward Holland; Editing by Alexander Winning)
