(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce (toz), citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows.
The investment bank, whose previous year-end forecast was $3,300, said it expected central bank demand to average 80 tonnes per month, up from its previous assumption of 70 tonnes and well above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tonnes per month.
The bank also noted a surge in gold ETF inflows, driven by fears of a recession, with its economists assigning a 45% probability to a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.
Spot gold has continued its rally from the last year, hitting multiple record highs and gaining more than 23% so far this year. Bullion breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday. [GOL/]
The bank’s analysis also said that in the medium-term, the risks to their upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside. If central bank buying averages 100 tonnes/month, Goldman estimates that gold could reach $3,810/toz by end-2025. On the ETF side, if a recession occurs, ETF inflows could revert back to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end.
However, if economic growth outperforms expectations due to reduced policy uncertainty, ETF flows would likely revert back to their rates-based prediction, with year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz, Goldman said.
The following is a list of the latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agen Annual Price Price Targets
cy Forecasts
2025 2026
Goldman Sachs $3,295 $3,700 by 2025
year-end
Commerzbank $3,000
HSBC $3,015 $2,915 $2,750 by 2027 and
$2,350 long-term
Deutsche Bank $3,139 $3,700 $3,350 by year-end
ANZ * $2,763 $2,795 $2,900 by end-2025
Macquarie $2,951 $2,675 –
UBS $3,500 – $3,000 by end-2025
BofA $3,063 $3,350 –
JP Morgan $2,863 $3,019 $3,000 by Q4 2025
Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450 –
Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month forecast at
$3,200 and 6-12 month
forecast at $3,000;
$3,500 by end-2025
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by David Holmes)
