By Himanshi Akhand
(Reuters) – Investors ramped up their bullish bets on most Asian currencies, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as worries about U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump continued to weaken the dollar.
Analysts increased their long positions on the Singapore dollar, the Indian rupee, the Thai baht, and the Philippine peso, according to a fortnightly poll of 10 respondents.
They also turned bullish on the South Korean won, the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit for the first time since October.
The dollar notched its weakest monthly performance in 2-1/2 years in April, as tariff tensions ignited fears of a global economic slowdown and dented confidence in U.S. assets.
However, the greenback has steadied recently as signs of progress in broader trade negotiations, including with China, which faces the highest levies.
“With risk sentiment stabilizing on tentative signs of a U.S.-China de-escalation and the bond-vigilant U.S. administration helping to curtail a UST sell-off, Asian currencies could be somewhat supported tactically,” Parisha Saimbi, an EM Asia FXLM strategist at BNP Paribas, said.
Long bets on the Philippines peso, which gained 2.6% in April, reached their highest since mid-September, with analysts at Barclays suggesting that the market narrative around the country being likely more-insulated from tariff threats remains intact.
The Philippines has not been spared from the global trade war triggered by Trump’s tariffs, but it faces a comparatively modest 17% levies compared to other Southeast Asian economies.
Analysts also trimmed their short positions on the Chinese yuan and the Indonesian rupiah but bets on the latter still remained firmly in the bearish territory.
The rupiah has been on a downtrend since March on concerns over fiscal health and government policies.
The currency’s sharp drop to a record low in early-April had prompted Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene in the offshore non-deliverable forward market to support the currency, and the bank also held policy rates steady last week aiming to maintain rupiah stability.
BNP Paribas’ Saimbi said that the rupiah has scope to catch up with regional peers.
Valuations are attractive to turn tactically long on the rupiah now, Saimbi said, adding that she sees scope for some portfolio inflows if risk sentiment stabilizes.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
01-May-25 0.20 -0.06 -0.67 1.27 -0.53 -0.58 -0.40 -1.02 -0.61
17-Apr-25 0.57 0.19 -0.26 1.33 0.06 -0.20 0.04 -0.65 -0.30
03-Apr-25 0.47 1.13 0.54 1.20 1.14 0.01 0.33 -0.15 0.40
20-Mar-25 0.24 0.72 0.15 0.97 0.85 1.09 0.42 -0.13 0.08
06-Mar-25 0.77 1.00 0.34 1.36 0.71 1.47 0.45 0.20 0.48
20-Feb-25 0.88 0.83 0.31 1.06 0.59 1.22 0.37 0.31 0.02
06-Feb-25 1.15 1.01 0.86 1.25 1.14 1.98 0.62 0.93 0.23
23-Jan-25 1.33 1.04 1.11 1.50 1.01 1.78 1.01 0.77 0.54
09-Jan-25 1.65 1.75 1.34 1.20 1.18 1.69 0.99 0.65 0.76
12-Dec-24 1.15 1.86 0.83 0.87 0.82 1.43 0.65 0.53 0.26
(Reporting by Himanshi Akhand in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
