A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Without doubt, markets are more optimistic now about a thaw in global trade tensions than they were two weeks ago, when the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump first started hinting at a de-escalation with China.
But whatever hopes there are heading into Saturday’s scheduled talks in Switzerland between U.S. and Chinese officials, they are not being embraced evenly across markets.
The dollar remains up on the euro, sitting at a one-month peak, but the safe-haven yen is pushing up from a one-month trough, likely in response to Beijing’s defiant tone on Friday when China’s vice foreign affairs minister said that, while his country doesn’t want a trade war, it doesn’t fear one either.
The yuan dipped to a one-week low in offshore markets.
Trump has hinted that sky-high 145% levies on Chinese goods – which effectively amount to an embargo – would likely come down, although the White House dismissed as speculation a New York Post report of a plan to slash tariffs by more than half.
In stock markets, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5% but gains elsewhere in Asia were more muted and, perhaps tellingly, Chinese bourses including Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were all lower.
Wall Street futures were flat on Friday, after some relatively robust gains overnight. Signals from European futures indicated only a marginal rise.
The build-up to Washington’s trade agreement with London on Thursday set the market up to be a bit disappointed. Analysts later called it more of a framework than a trade deal, and more style than substance.
But taking the glass-half-full view, as the first deal since Trump started ramping up tariffs in earnest, it does stir hopes that the White House may be looking for rapid-fire deals in coming weeks to inject additional calm into markets that have been badly bruised by erratic U.S. trade edicts.
Crude oil traders seem optimistic, sending Nymex up more than 3% on Thursday, while safe-haven gold sagged a little further back from last month’s all-time peak.
Bitcoin is particularly buoyant, pushing back to the cusp of $104,000 on Friday. At various times this year the token has acted as a barometer of risk appetite and of expectations on Trump policy.
But it may have even more going on now, according to StanChart’s digital asset analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, who predicts a break of the record high of $109,071.86 “is coming soon”.
“It is now all about flows,” he wrote in his latest note, pointing to both buying by whales and ETF inflows.
“I apologise that my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low.”
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
— BoE Governor Bailey, Fed governors Barr, Kugler, New York Fed chief Williams speak at conference in Reykjavik, Iceland
— Richmond Fed chief Barkin, Chicago Fed chief Goolsbee speak at separate venues
— ECB board member Schnabel speaks at Harvard University
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(By Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
