By Siyi Liu
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, may hike crude oil prices for Asian buyers for the second month in a row, with September prices set to hit five-month highs on tight supply and robust demand, refining sources said.
The September official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude may rise 90 cents to $1.05 a barrel from August to between $3.10 and $3.25 a barrel, which would be the highest in five months, five refining sources said in a Reuters survey.
The September OSPs for other crude grades – Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy – could gain 80-95 cents a barrel from August, the survey showed.
These forecasts are in line with a $1.11 a barrel gain in cash Dubai’s premium to swaps this month from last month, and they would mark a second straight month of strong increases. [CRU/M]
For August, Saudi Arabia hiked Arab Light prices by $1 per barrel for both Asian and European buyers after a 12-day Iran-Israel conflict sparked fears over exports and shipping, and briefly pushed up spot prices.
Spot benchmarks stayed elevated subsequently as domestic crude consumption rose during summer in the Middle East, limiting exports, while consumption in Asia was firm.
Demand from China, the world’s top consumer, strengthened after state-owned refiners ramped up output in July to meet higher third-quarter fuel demand and to rebuild diesel and gasoline stocks which are at multi-year lows.
Nevertheless, a sixth respondent, whose forecast was not included because it was an outlier, said rising Saudi output may cap the September price hike for Arab Light at 60-70 cents a barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to agree to another 548,000 barrels per day output hike in September when they meet later on Monday.
Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting about 9 million bpd of crude bound for Asia.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.
Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom’s monthly OSPs.
Below are expected Saudi prices for September (in $/bbl against the Oman/Dubai average):
August Change est.Septembe
r OSP
Arab Extra +2.30 +0.90/+0.9 +3.20/+3.25
Light 5
Arab Light +2.20 +0.90/+1.0 +3.10/+3.25
5
Arab Medium +1.75 +0.85 +2.60
Arab Heavy +0.60 +0.80/+0.8 +1.40/+1.45
5
Source: Reuters, trade
(Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore. Editing by Florence Tan and Mark Potter)
