Visa beats quarterly estimates on resilient consumer spending but steady forecast drags shares

(Corrects paragraph 6 to clarify that spending pull forward was in April, not happening currently)

By Pritam Biswas and Ateev Bhandari

(Reuters) -Visa beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue on Tuesday, as the global payments processing company was helped by strong card spending volumes despite softness in the broader economy. 

However, the payments processing company kept its full-year forecast for net revenue growth unchanged, sending shares of the company down nearly 2% in extended trading.

Visa maintained its forecast of annual net revenue growth in the low single digits for fiscal year 2025. 

The fiscal 2025 unchanged outlook guidance is “the likely cause of negative pressure on the shares as it implies a deceleration in revenue growth,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note. But it could be conservatism, given the macro environment, they added.

Analysts expect a potential spending slowdown in the back half of 2025 as consumers front-load expenses on products they expect to become costlier once tariffs take effect.

“We saw some evidence of pull forward in some categories (in April). Specific categories that people thought might be hit by tariffs, even more significantly,” finance chief Chris Suh said in an interview with Reuters, referring to the time when tariffs were first announced. 

The shifting U.S. tariff policies may already be weighing on cross-border payments growth, with the volume of such transactions growing 12% in the third quarter, slower than the 14% rise reported last year.

CEO Ryan McInerney, however, said on a post-earnings conference call that the company sees no meaningful impact from tariffs. 

CONSUMER RESILIENCE

Consumers have continued to use card payments for essential purchases, even as they rein in discretionary spending amid economic uncertainties spurred by geopolitical tensions and U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

The company’s services are used by billions of people globally for everyday purchases, making the card network better positioned to withstand economic downturns.

Global payments volume, a gauge of overall consumer and business spending on Visa’s network, jumped 8% on a constant dollar basis in the quarter ended June 30.

Quarterly net revenue rose 14% to $10.17 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $9.84 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. 

Visa reported adjusted earnings of $2.98 per share for the three months ended June 30, also beating estimates of $2.85 per share. 

Its stock has gained nearly 11% this year as of last close, outpacing both its rivals, Mastercard and American Express.

American Express, which generally caters to affluent customers, also beat estimates for quarterly profit earlier this month. Mastercard is set to report its earnings later in the week. 

(Reporting by Pritam Biswas and Ateev Bhandari in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo and Alan Barona)

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