By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea’s exports likely climbed in July for a second straight month on robust chip sales and frontloading ahead of a U.S. tariff deadline, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 4.6% from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from a survey of 22 economists.
That would be slightly faster than the 4.3% increase in June and mark the biggest gain since December 2024.
Data for the first 20 days of the month showed exports fell 2.2% as shipments to the U.S. and China – its biggest trading partners – declined, although semiconductor exports jumped 16.5%.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened South Korea with 25% tariffs, and officials are scrambling to clinch a trade deal before an August 1 deadline.
Trade rival Japan last week signed an agreement lowering its tariffs to 15%, adding to pressure on Seoul to make a deal that is at least no worse.
The second half of the year is set to be much tougher for the country’s exporters.
“It is inevitable there will be an overall shock to U.S.-bound exports, because the possibility is high that the tariff rate on South Korea will at least be 15% or higher even after trade negotiations,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
The Bank of Korea said last week that U.S. tariffs would start to weigh on exports from the third quarter. Robust tech exports in the second quarter helped the trade-reliant economy grow at its fastest pace in more than a year.
The median estimate for July trade balance stood at a surplus of $5.36 billion, narrower than June’s $9.08 billion, which was the biggest since September 2018.
Imports were projected to have increased 2.0% after gaining 3.3% in June.
South Korea – the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month – is scheduled to release data for July on Friday, August 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan and Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
