By Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson
BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s soybean imports rose to the highest ever for the month of July, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed on Thursday, driven by strong Brazilian exports and ongoing China-U.S. trade uncertainties that have raised supply concerns.
The world’s largest soybean consumer brought in 11.67 million metric tons in July, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, up 18.5% from 9.85 million tons a year earlier, and above analysts’ expectations of 10.48 million tons.
“This suggests the market is preparing for potential uncertainties arising from China-U.S. trade tensions,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, who expects imports to remain above 10 million tons in August and September.
Most beans are expected to come from top soy supplier Brazil.
“Brazil’s abundant soybean production has provided a strong supply foundation. Due to its bumper harvest, the peak supply period for Brazilian soybeans is expected to be longer than in previous years, remaining at a high level leading up to the fourth quarter,” said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.
Shipments for the first seven months of the year totaled 61.04 million tons, up 4.6% year-on-year, the Customs data showed.
July imports were down 4.8% from June, the data showed.
Concerns over the trade disputes between the U.S. and China have fuelled soybean supply fears for the fourth quarter, with local feed mills on Tuesday booking around 1.9 million tons of soymeal for October to January deliveries, the biggest single-day purchase of 2025.
China has yet to book any U.S. soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter as buyers await the outcome of China-U.S. trade negotiations.
“Overall, a temporary mismatch between supply and demand for imported soybeans in China’s domestic market may occur in the fourth quarter,” Wan said.
Still, China is facing a soymeal supply glut, as record imports earlier in 2025 combined with weak demand from animal feed producers have increased domestic soymeal inventories, Reuters has previously reported.
(Reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
