By Indradip Ghosh
BENGALURU (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will hold interest rates at 2.00% in September according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, with the euro zone’s economic outlook broadly unchanged after the EU agreed a trade deal with the United States.
Expectations have shifted from the previous poll in July when the majority of economists had forecast another rate cut next month. Now policymakers are seen waiting until December if they opt to cut rates one more time, but there is no longer a majority consensus for where the deposit rate will be by end-year.
While most respondents said the 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods could weigh on growth and dampen price pressures, upcoming fiscal support, particularly from Germany, and reduced uncertainty are seen keeping the bloc on a steady growth path.
Inflation is already at the ECB’s target of 2%, providing additional assurance for policymakers. The central bank held rates last month, after a cumulative 200 basis point reduction since June 2024.
The steady economic outlook is in contrast to the United States, where the jobs market is weakening, inflation is ticking higher and the Federal Reserve, which has held rates steady all year, faces growing doubts over its future independence from political interference.
A majority of economists, 46 of 72, in the August 11-14 poll expect the ECB’s Governing Council to leave interest rates unchanged next month.
“Many of the GC members, whether they be hawks or doves, have been saying they don’t need to do anything right now,” said George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura.
“We’ve got a combination of rates that are neutral, growth at trend and inflation moving to the target or staying roughly around it.”
The 2% deposit rate is the midpoint of the ECB’s estimated neutral rate range of 1.75% to 2.25% which neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.
Last month, nearly 60% of economists said there would be one more rate cut by year-end. Now just 47%, 34 of 72, expect one more cut, likely in December, while 31 forecast no further reduction and seven saw two additional 25 basis point cuts.
“We are in a world in which tariffs are pretty much disinflationary. Certainly, this contributes to further risks the ECB could cut rates, but it’s not necessarily bad enough for them to do it,” said Fabio Balboni, senior European economist at HSBC.
“We won’t have enough new information by (September)…if I have to give a time for a possible further rate cut, maybe more likely December or even the start of next year.”
Inflation will average around 2% at least until 2027, according to poll medians, an outlook stable since June.
The euro zone economy is forecast to grow 1.1% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, also broadly unchanged since June.
“The (trade) deal was pretty much close to our base case,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. “Businesses have a little bit more certainty in terms of planning investments going forward.”
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting by Indradip Ghosh; Polling by Jaiganesh Mahesh and Reshma Ann Samuel; Editing by Ross Finley, Kirsten Donovan)
