By Samuel Indyk and Wayne Cole
LONDON (Reuters) -European shares wobbled on Monday ahead of what is likely to be an eventful week for U.S. interest rate policy, as investor attention turned to Washington where Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders will meet Donald Trump.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down about 0.2% after hitting its highest level since March on Friday, while the MSCI All Country World Index hovered close to the record high touched last week.
Earlier in the Asian session, indices in Japan and Taiwan notched record peaks, while a gauge of Chinese stocks reached its highest level in a decade.
Investors were bracing for U.S. President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders later on Monday to discuss the next steps to end the war in Ukraine, after Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
While the summit did not result in an agreement, Trump afterwards appeared more aligned with Moscow on seeking a full peace deal with Ukraine instead of a ceasefire first.
“It will be a bit of a muted start to the week,” said Lars Skovgaard, senior investment strategist at Danske Bank, after the Russia-U.S. talks on Friday.
Skovgaard added that whether or not a deal is reached, focus was already turning to the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank’s policy framework.
Markets imply around an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on September 17, and are priced for a further cut by December.
“We see three rate cuts in the U.S. this year, and slower GDP growth but no recession,” said Mark Matthews, head of research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer in Singapore. “The combination of those two should allow the rally to continue.”
The prospect of lower borrowing costs globally has underpinned stock markets, and Japan’s Nikkei climbed to a fresh record high. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.1%, having scaled a four-year peak last week.
In Europe, Germany’s DAX eased 0.3%. Britain’s FTSE was down 0.1%.
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures eased 0.1%, though both were near all-time highs.
Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as the S&P 500 EPS grew 11% on the year and 58% of companies raised their full-year guidance.
“Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs. “While Nvidia has yet to report, the Magnificent 7 apparently grew EPS by 26% year/year in 2Q, a 12% beat relative to consensus expectation coming into earnings season.”
This week’s results will provide some colour on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all reporting.
In bond markets, the chance of Fed easing is keeping down short-term Treasury yields while the longer end is pressured by the risk of stagflation and giant budget deficits, leading to the steepest yield curve since 2021.
European bonds also have been pressured by the prospect of increased borrowing to fund higher defence spending, pushing German and French long-term yields to their highest since 2011.
Wagers on more Fed easing have weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.4% against a basket of currencies last week to last stand at 97.858.
The dollar was up 0.2% on the yen at 147.42 , while the euro slipped to $1.1682 after adding 0.5% last week.
In commodity markets, gold bounced 0.4% to $3,349 an ounce after losing 1.9% last week. [GOL/]
Oil prices edged higher as White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Russia’s war in Ukraine and had to stop, even as Trump backed away from threats to place more restrictions on Russian oil exports. [O/R]
Brent was up 0.4% at $66.08 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.5% t0 $63.11 per barrel.
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Wayne Cole, additional reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter and Ankur Banerjee; editing by Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln Feast, Mark Heinrich and Christina Fincher)
