By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks drifted higher and the dollar steadied on Monday, with markets weighing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path after a rate cut last week, while President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown on worker visas kept sentiment in check.
India’s benchmark index slipped after the Trump administration said on Friday it would ask companies to pay $100,000 for new H-1B worker visas, a blow to the tech sector that relies on skilled workers from India and China.
U.S. stock futures eased with the S&P futures down 0.1%, while European futures indicated a subdued open.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.1% higher. Tokyo’s Nikkei rose 1.3% and Taiwan stocks gained more than 1% to a record high.
India’s $283 billion information technology sector, which gets more than half of its revenue from the U.S., will likely feel the pain in the near term amid souring ties between India and the United States.
Trump last month doubled tariffs on imports from India to as much as 50%, partly due to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.
“It’s a risk to operating costs and margins first of all. Obviously it could raise wages and labour costs a bit,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com
“Tech companies may also find themselves in a bind where they confront punitive measures if they look to offshore labour because they can’t find enough workers in the U.S.”
In China, stocks were choppy as investors digested positive signals from U.S.-China talks after Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping made progress on a TikTok agreement.
FED POLICY OUTLOOK
On the macroeconomic front, investors remain keen to gauge the U.S. monetary policy path after the Fed indicated a gradual easing phase in the future, with traders pricing in 44 basis points of easing in the two policy meetings left for the year.
A host of policymakers are expected to speak in the week, while data on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is due on Friday that will help set the tone for the near-term rate outlook.
The expectation is for the core PCE price index to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis, which would keep the annual rate steady at 2.9%, the same as in July, and above the 2.6% low it reached in April, according to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“Although even a shallower rate-cutting cycle should, in theory, weigh on the U.S. dollar, the U.S. dollar short trade has become crowded,” Sycamore said, adding the dollar index has lost downside momentum in recent months after a torrid start.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was 0.09% higher at 97.814. The index is down nearly 10% this year but much of its decline came in the first six months of 2025.
The Japanese yen was slightly weaker at 148.20 per U.S. dollar after strengthening on Friday following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish hold where two board members voted against keeping interest rates steady.
While the central bank kept short-term interest rates, board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura proposed, unsuccessfully, a hike in a move markets saw as a prelude to a near-term increase in borrowing costs.
Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC Bank, said Friday’s decision will be taken by markets as a signal that the Japanese central bank is gradually turning hawkish.
It heightens “expectations of future rate increases and the potential for higher JGB yields and a stronger yen, which may not be the best piece of news for Japanese equities and bonds in the short term,” he said.
In commodities, oil prices inched higher in early trading, with Brent crude futures 0.7% higher at $67.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.77% to $63.16. [O/R]
Gold prices climbed 0.24% to $3,692.79 per ounce, just shy of the record high touched last week. [GOL/]
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
