By Gayatri Suroyo and Stefanno Sulaiman
JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia recorded a bigger than expected $5.49 billion trade surplus in August, the largest monthly number in almost three years, as a sharp drop in imports more than made up for slowing export growth, official data showed on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a $4 billion surplus in August. The country had a $4.17 billion surplus in the previous month.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has enjoyed a relatively large trade surplus for the past few months as exporters front-loaded shipments to the U.S. in a bid to beat the tariff deadline of August 7.
August exports grew 5.78% annually to $24.96 billion, the weakest growth in four months but slightly faster than the 5.5% expected by economists in the poll, the data showed.
U.S.-bound shipments were worth $2.72 billion in August, down 12.4% from July, but still up about 3% from the same month in 2024.
The U.S., a major export market for Jakarta, set a 19% tariff rate on Indonesian products, in line with regional peers and well below the 32% first flagged in April.
The overall figure for August shipments was also bolstered by rising exports of palm oil, nickel, gold and jewellery.
Imports dropped 6.56% to $19.47 billion, far more than the 1.6% decline predicted in the poll, with imports of gold and jewellery, iron and steel, organic chemicals and cereals registering the biggest fall.
The rupiah gained slightly after the data, to trade almost flat from yesterday’s close.
Bank Permata economist Faisal Rachman expected exports for the rest of the year to soften due to shipments to the U.S. potentially declining and subdued global demand, particularly from biggest buyer China.
Imports could also rise on Jakarta’s commitment to buy American products, a potential influx of Chinese goods, and the government’s pro-growth policy strengthening import demand, Faisal said.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s annual inflation rate in September picked up to 2.65% from 2.31%, still well within the central bank’s 1.5% to 3.5% target range. The poll had expected 2.50%.
The acceleration was due to higher food and transportation prices.
Bank Indonesia has since September 2024 cut interest rates by a total of 150 basis points, taking advantage of low inflation to aid economic growth, although some investors worry the central bank is under pressure from the government to ease monetary policy.
The annual core inflation in September was 2.19%, matching expectations.
(Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Stefanno Sulaiman, Fransiska Nangoy and Stanley Widianto; Editing by John Mair and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
