By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese
(Reuters) -Gold hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on brewing U.S.-China trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, with bets on interest rate cuts fueling the momentum.
Spot gold was up 1.4% at $4,264.63 per ounce as of 11:06 a.m. ET (1506 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of $4,270.59 earlier.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.9% at $4,279.50.
The yellow metal has gained over 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation and robust ETF inflows.
“Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China. If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5000/oz barrier,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering U.S.-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China’s expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.
Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively.
Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.
Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said.
HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it could cost the economy up to $15 billion a week in lost output.
Spot silver rose 1.3% to $53.76 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $53.83 earlier in the session, tracking gold’s rally and supported by tightness in the spot market.
Platinum rose 3.8% to $1,717.10 and palladium climbed 3.1% to $1,584.25.
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
