By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) -Global oil supply will match demand in 2026 in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases and higher supply from other producers, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 after widespread predictions of oversupply.
In a monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC said the global economy’s growth trend remained firm and it maintained its forecasts for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026.
“The global economy has remained resilient through 2025, supported by easing trade uncertainty since the summer,” OPEC said in the report.
GAP WITH IEA
OPEC’s demand forecasts are at the higher end of industry estimates, such as those from the International Energy Agency. OPEC’s outlook had also implied a supply deficit in 2026, in contrast to the IEA and many analysts.
A large deficit gives a more comfortable backdrop for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share. But Wednesday’s report showed the gap between OPEC and other forecasters is narrowing.
OPEC said in the report that OPEC+ cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd in October despite the output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.
Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies that the market will show a marginal surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October’s rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.
OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd from the previous projection after an upward revision to its 2025 estimates for production outside OPEC+.
Last month’s report had projected a deficit of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall of 700,000 bpd.
OTHERS EXPECT A GLUT
There is still a large gap between OPEC’s outlook and those of other forecasters, which expect supply to outpace demand significantly next year.
The IEA’s latest forecasts imply that supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026, equal to almost 4% of global demand. The agency, which advises industrialised countries, is scheduled to update its forecasts on Thursday.
(Reporting by Alex LawlerEditing by Jane Merriman and David Goodman)
