ABIDJAN (Reuters) -Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest cocoa producer, has sold 1.3 million tons of cocoa contracts for the 2025/26 October to March main crop, down from 1.4 million tons last year, amid concerns over declining harvests and production, two Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) sources told Reuters on Thursday.
Despite what they said would be an expected 30% year-on-year drop in cocoa bean arrivals at the country’s two main ports between January and March 2026, the CCC sources said no risk of default is currently anticipated throughout its main harvest.
The anticipated production decline stems from insufficient investment by farmers, ageing farms, crop disease, and erratic rainfall patterns, the sources said.
“We are quite satisfied with the start of the season, and current arrivals are in line with our forecasts. The harvest is early, with large volumes, but this is bound to drop in 2026 between January and March,” said one, a CCC manager.
The two CCC officials also noted that cross-border cocoa smuggling trends have largely reversed this year, with lower smuggling volumes into Guinea and Liberia, and a smaller flow of cocoa entering Ivory Coast from neighbouring countries.
“Cocoa from Liberia and Guinea fuels our arrivals because buyers find a better price here … but these are marginal quantities compared with what was going from us to them,” the first CCC source said.
However, preliminary CCC data from November forecasts a 25-30% decline in intermediate crop production, a trend that may worsen with the December-April “harmattan” dry season and ongoing drought risks, a second CCC source said.
“More than anything, this is our real concern. It’s exactly the same signals as last year, and we’re likely to get the same results,” said the second CCC source.
To manage supplies during a difficult end of harvest and a complicated intermediate harvest, the CCC plans to conduct stock checks and restrict purchases by exporters to ensure market stability, while offering all intermediate cocoa production exclusively in spot form to maintain grinding levels.
“In principle, everyone will have the volume they need,” the second source added.
(Reporting by Ange Aboa; Editing by Ayen Deng Bior and Philippa Fletcher)
