By Susanna Twidale
LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s electricity and gas grid operators expect the country to have sufficient energy supplies this winter, despite tighter gas margins due to declining domestic production, they said in their respective winter outlooks on Thursday.
Britain’s National Energy System Operator and National Gas publish annual reports about the gas and electricity supply and demand picture for the coming winter to help businesses and government prepare.
“Only a rare combination of events – such as a very cold UK winter coinciding with a major supply disruption, would pose a material risk to our gas or electricity systems,” Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of Energy Systems & Resilience at National Gas, said in its winter outlook.
More than a quarter of Britain’s electricity supply comes from gas plants, while most of the country’s homes are also heated by the fuel.
National Gas said it expects to have sufficient gas this winter, but said the supply margin is tighter than the previous four years due to declining UK continental shelf supply and reductions in storage.
“The energy landscape is evolving, with a growing reliance on imports,” Bryn-Jacobsen, said.
Overall gas demand is expected to be 3% lower than last winter, mainly due to reduced power sector demand as renewable power output increases.
Peak day gas demand this winter is expected at 482 mcm/d versus a peak supply capacity of 565 mcm/d, National Gas said.
HIGH ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MARGINS
Britain’s winter electricity outlook also looks stable.
The NESO projects a de-rated margin – excess capacity above peak demand – of 6.1 gigawatts (GW) for winter 2025/26, equivalent to 10% of peak average cold spell demand and the highest level since winter 2019/20.
More battery storage capacity, greater availability of gas plants and an increase in interconnection with Europe after the Greenlink power link between Britain and Ireland led to the increase, the outlook said.
However, NESO cautioned that tight supply days remain likely and said electricity prices over the period will be influenced by the gas markets.
“Slightly lower European stocks heading into winter may lead to a greater requirement for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports during a cold winter, which could affect gas and, in turn, power prices,” the NESO outlook said.
(Reporting By Susanna Twidale: Editing by Sharon Singleton)
