By Stephanie van den Berg, Bart H. Meijer and Charlotte Van Campenhout
THE HAGUE (Reuters) -Dutch voters cast their ballots on Wednesday to choose between doubling down on the anti-immigration nationalism of Geert Wilders, who sank the last conservative coalition after a fractious two years, or a return to the centre.
With nationalist parties topping polls in Britain, France and Germany, the Dutch election is a test of whether the far-right can expand its reach or whether it has peaked in parts of Europe.
Opinion polls show the once sizeable lead of Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) has crumbled, with competitors spanning the mainstream right and left virtually tied with the bleached-blond admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump.
“My message to everyone is that if we run on positive platforms … it’s possible to defeat the populists and to work together with the broad middle and centrist parties to deliver real results,” Rob Jetten, the 38-year-old leader of the centrist D66 party, said after casting his vote.
The leading mainstream parties, including the centre-right Christian Democrats and VVD, and the D66, which has gained in popularity in past weeks, have said they would not enter into a coalition with Wilders and his PVV party. That means Wilders would likely be blocked from power unless he wins by an unexpectedly wide margin.
The first exit poll, which historically has proven to be accurate, will be released when voting ends at 9 p.m.
DUTCH ELECTIONS ARE INCREASINGLY UNPREDICTABLE
Dutch elections have become increasingly unpredictable and building stable coalitions is a fraught task which can take weeks or months.
Opinion polls showed nearly half the electorate was still undecided days ahead of the vote.
“The main question I think is can we beat populism,” Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal said after casting his vote.
Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-serving populist leaders, is renowned for his anti-Islam stance and lives under constant protection due to death threats. He proposes saving funds by denying all asylum requests — which would violate EU treaties — sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine, and halting development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits.
Wilders led his party to a stunning first-place finish in the previous election in 2023 and formed an all-conservative coalition – although his partners refused to endorse him as prime minister. He brought the government down in June over its refusal to adopt his hardline anti-refugee measures.
“I’m hoping for a good result. For my party it’s important that there’s a good turnout, that a lot of people go vote,” Wilders said on Wednesday.
VOTERS ARE DIVIDED OVER WILDERS
In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and a Wilders stronghold, some locals said earlier this week they were hoping for Wilders to win.
“We need to be able to take care of ourselves, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV. Our own people first,” said Jaap Schilder, 40, fish shop owner and local politician.
Wilders’ PVV has seen some of its support siphoned away by the Christian Democrats, whose new leader Bontenbal is campaigning on a pledge of government stability and traditional values.
Analysts say that Wilders’ ebbing support reflects voter frustration over chaotic infighting in the last coalition. His gushing praise of Trump’s leadership and the U.S. president’s perceived willingness to test the limits of U.S. democracy also unsettles some voters.
After voting in The Hague’s city hall, 21-year-old Janne van Holland said: “I’ve voted for D66 because for me climate, but also education, is important.”
“And also because I hope PVV will not become the biggest (party).”
(Additional reporting by Suban Abdulla, Marta Fiorin; Writing by Stephanie van den Berg and Ingrid Melander; editing by Sharon Singleton and Toby Chopra)
